Latest polls predict a landslide win for Morales Bolivia elections

In a country notorious for its political instability, the past two terms of of its presidency have brought an unprecedented wave of constancy to the Andean nation of Bolivia. As the country’s presidential election takes place this weekend, incumbent President Evo Morales is well poised to recapture the presidential seat in La Paz after the latest round of polls predicted a landslide victory for the controversial Bolivian leader.

Per the latest indicators, Morales is polling in at 59 percent, while his four nearest opponents have a combined tally of less-than-half that amount.

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And while the Bolivian constitution previously limited presidential tenures to two years, President Morales was able to push forward a new charter in 2009 that has now allowed him to seek a third term. Despite questions as to the democratic legitimacy of his elections, Morales has incontestably brought a level of stability to the country, which hasn’t been seen in years. Multiple surveys indicate that up to 75 percent of Bolivians approve of the job Morales has done while in office.

Further, according to The Economist, “Such consensus is unusual in Bolivia, a land of unstable politics. According to Martin Sivak, a biographer of Mr. Morales, 36 of the 83 governments in Bolivia’s independent history lasted a year or less; coup has followed coup. Between 2001 and 2005, five presidents came and went at the residence known as the ‘Burned Palace’.”

Meanwhile, his opponents this campaign season—including cement mogul Samuel Doria Medina—have failed to pose much of a challenge to Morales’s incumbency. Heading into the weekend election, it’s incredibly improbable that President Morales fails to meet the 40 percent cutoff in order to avoid a run-off vote.

And while an extended stay in the presidential mansion is all but guaranteed, Morales enters his third term with critics doubting whether or not he can extend the country’s period of economic growth that has come to define his first two terms.

As Matt Craze and John Quigley of Bloomberg BusinessWeek report, “Fiscal revenue has jumped 160 percent since 2006, financing welfare programs and the construction of roads, schools and hospitals. Per-capita GDP in the country of 10 million has surged 126 percent to $2,989, while remaining the lowest in South America, according to the International Monetary Fund. The poverty rate fell to 45 percent in 2011 from 60 percent in 2005, according to the country’s statistics office.”

Most of this growth has been spurred by the rising price of Bolivian gas, minerals, and agricultural products, which have counted on expanding foreign demand.

However, despite the tremendous economic progress, Morales continues to face his harshest critics on the human rights front. His administration has consistently been accused of silencing the opposition and failing to give a voice to the oppressed. On the one hand, as The Economist explains, “Mr. Morales has neutered the opposition. The fact that he controls two-thirds of Congress makes it easy to impose policies, and he dominates the media in a way that lessens any risk of unflattering coverage. He has prosecuted several political foes.”

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Beyond his political opposition, human rights activists argue that Morales has done little to advance the position of women in the patriarchal society that continues to dominate the Andean country. Femicide and the high rates of abuse against women remains a problem the country still has to grapple with.

Ultimately, while Morales seems poised to retake office by a landslide this weekend, his third term will not be without major questions of its own.