Jeb Bush’s Challenge

The announcement yesterday of Jeb Bush’s decision to create an exploratory committee for a possible presidential run puts him at the top —at least when it comes to the process— of what will be a long list of candidates to the White House. It’s a strategic move, along with the publication of 250,000 emails, to win a primary season that now seems to be all uphill.

The ex governor of Florida has held moderate positions in issues that conservatives fiercely oppose, like education —Common Core— and immigration.

Several Republican governors with presidential aspirations have denounced the Common Core program, which requires math an English teaching, as a threat to the states’ independence, but Bush has defended it at every occasion.

As for immigration, Bush has expressed a more reasonable view towards the undocumented, recognizing their contributions. This contrasts with possible presidential contenders in the Senate like Ted Cruz from Texas, Rand Paul from Kentucky, and Marco Rubio from Florida. All of them thought it was more important to record a protest against Obama’s executive action than to support the bipartisan budget.

Jeb Bush’s dilemma is how to win a primary which is dominated by the most conservative voters. The past Mitt Romney campaign highlighted the difficulties in pulling towards the electoral center after having won the conservative vote in the primaries.

A hypothetical Jeb Bush presidential run would be attractive for the Latino voter. Be it his familiarity with the culture —his wife is Mexican— or some of his political views. However, the litmus test for a majority of Latinos will be whether he will extend Obama’s executive actions on immigration, or will he support eliminating the protection against deportation — and the separation of millions of families.

The challenge for every presidential contender is to raise money. The challenge for Bush is to seek a real support for his candidacy in the Republican establishment, so a moderate in education and immigration issues can win the primaries without losing sight of the political center