Experts predict when Ebola will hit the U.S.
With many of the luxuries in the United States, it’s easy to believe we are immune to the ravages of epidemics like the one currently…
Ebola could be in the U.S. by September, study says. (Photo by ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images)
With many of the luxuries in the United States, it’s easy to believe we are immune to the ravages of epidemics like the one currently raging in West Africa. Ebola, a highly contagious virus, has been spreading from country to country on the continent, despite the best efforts to keep it contained.
Though Africa is separated from the U.S. by the ocean, experts warn it is only a matter of time before Ebola makes its way over. The chances are good, even, that the country will see its first true Ebola case before the end of September.
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Researchers evaluating the travel patterns of the current Ebola outbreak generated a theory as to the virus’s spread, publishing their analysis in the journal PLOS Currents: Outbreaks. According to the data, there is a 20 percent chance the U.S. could join the ranks of Ebola countries before the month is over.
This photo provided by the CDC shows an ebola Virus. U.S. health officials are monitoring the Ebola outbreak in Africa but say the risk of the deadly germ spreading to the United States is remote. (AP Photo/CDC)
Ebola is expected to spread first to other Africa countries, and should it hit the United States, researchers feel it would be quickly contained.
“We would assume that the US would have sufficient capacity to test people and treat them,” co-author Ira Longini, PhD, a professor of biostatistics told MNT. “We would not expect any real transmission in the US. Studies have shown the quarantining of entire villages and countries is highly ineffective, and this analysis shows that yet again. Surveillance and containment, which includes the isolation of cases and quarantine of close contacts, is the only intervention strategy that works that is available.”
Currently, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) are monitoring the numbers associated with the Ebola outbreak. The most recent data available indicates:
Total Cases
As of: August 31, 2014
- Suspected and Confirmed Case Count: 3707
- Suspected Case Deaths: 1848
- Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 2106
Cases by Country
Guinea
- Suspected and Confirmed Case Count: 771
- Suspected Case Deaths: 494
- Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 579
Liberia
- Suspected and Confirmed Case Count: 1698
- Suspected Case Deaths: 871
- Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 403
Nigeria
- Suspected and Confirmed Case Count: 21
- Suspected and Confirmed Case Deaths: 7
- Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 16
Senegal
- Suspected and Confirmed Case Count: 1
- Suspected and Confirmed Case Deaths: 0
- Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 1
Sierra Leone
- Suspected and Confirmed Case Count: 1216
- Suspected and Confirmed Case Deaths: 476
- Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 1107
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