A new age pyramid: Baby boomers taking us into uncharted territory
Within the next few decades, the U.S. will have the highest number of senior citizens it has ever seen, as the baby boomer generation reaches…
The baby boom population is living longer, and because of this the United States will see more elderly citizens living than ever in its history. (Shutterstock)
Within the next few decades, the U.S. will have the highest number of senior citizens it has ever seen, as the baby boomer generation reaches old age.
A new interactive essay from the Pew Research Center, titled Next America, shows that by 2060, our age pyramidwhich shows the percentage of the population within each age bracketwill no longer be a pyramid. Instead, it will be a rectangle, meaning that well have just about as many people over age 85 as under age 5. In all of history, this has never been the case.
SEE ALSO: Elderly and Hispanic, put that down that alcohol!
While the same demographic shift is happening around the world, its particularly pronounced in the U.S., with the main causes being longer lifespans and lower birthrates. Many analysts are concerned about how our health care system will handle the change.
Age by the numbers
According to Pew Research, the century between 1960 and 2060 represents one of the most significant demographic shifts weve ever seen.
In 1960, the U.S. population fit into a true age pyramid. Over a third of the population was age 14 or under, with the largest chunk of individuals under age 5. Each 4-year age bracket after that got progressively smaller (though there was a slightly larger group of individuals ages 35-39 than fit perfectly into the pyramid), with people over age 85 making up just 0.5 percent of the whole population.
Today, thats not the case. Our age pyramid has become a rectangle with only a pyramid at the top: the percentage of people who are under age 5 is approximately the same as those who are 15-19, 30-34, and 55-59. The population tapers off in the 65-69 age bracket, becoming a pyramid, but that wont be the case in another 50 years.
By 2060, Pew Research predicts that well have a fairly uniform rectangle, with a very slight bulge around middle age, to represent our populations age. That means that around 6 percent of the population will be within each age bracket, with just under 5 percent of the population over 85 years old, a huge demographic shift from 1960.
In the past, the age distribution depicted by each bar on the graph used to resemble an almost perfect pyramid, but as the population lives longer, the demographic distribution is expected to look more like this–a rectangular shape graph. (Chart: The Next America/Pew Research Center)
Age outside of the U.S.
As medical technology has improved and birthrates have decreased, weve gradually lengthened our lifespans while simultaneously adding fewer people to the overall population.
Thats a trend thats happening all around the world: usually, as a country becomes more developed, its birthrate decreases while its life expectancy goes up. In both individual countries, as well as the worlds population as a whole, the age pyramid is changing in much the same way as the U.S. age pyramid is shifting, albeit at a slower rate.
In South America, for example, projections suggest that the population will have evened out by closer to 2100; as of 2060, when the U.S. has an age rectangle, South American will have a demographic distribution similar to what we have today, with similar numbers of young people and middle aged people.
Concerns Over Healthcare
According to analysis by Wharton University, paying for this demographic shift isnt going to be easy, especially in terms of healthcare.
While we might be living longer, were not necessarily healthier, and covering the cost of medical issues that come with old age is an increasingly dire concern. According to the Wharton article, the U.S. health care system is nowhere near as efficient as it needs to be to take care of an aging baby boomer population.
David Pyott, the CEO and president of Allergan, explained that compared to other areas of the worldthe U.K., for instanceU.S. health care spending is poorly distributed. He noted that though the U.K. only spends 8 percent of its GDP on health care, it sees a higher return in terms of life expectancy than the U.S., which spends 18 percent of its GDP on the same area.
Similarly, the National Institute on Aging and World Health Organization predicted that U.S. economic loss as result of increasing disease burden will grow exponentially in coming years.
Cancer, heart disease and stroke increase in incidence as a higher proportion of the population ages, so without more preventative measures to help people avoid those diseases, the cost of caring for a large elderly population will skyrocket.
While we cant stop the coming demographic shift, we can hope that our health care and political systems will adequately prepare for it.
SEE ALSO: Elderly health rankings
