Uncertainty in Syria

The civil war in Syria is pitting against each other complex regional and geopolitical interests that pose a high degree of uncertainty, requiring great caution from the White House.

The idea of reprimanding or punishing a government for allegedly using chemical weapons is understandable and praiseworthy. However, it would not take place in a vacuum. On the contrary, this situation is happening in the heart of the Middle East.

The motivations for war mingle with the wish for democracy of Syrian rebels who coexist with religiously zealous foreign combatants involved in a religious war. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is one of the main promoters of overthrowing the regime of Bashar al-Assad, in a global chess game to counteract, in particular, the weight of Syria’s allies—Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

To top it off, Syria remained under the Soviet Union’s shadow during the Cold War. Therefore, Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to keep supporting Assad’s government.

On the other hand, Syria’s war has lasted several years, resulting in more than 100,000 dead. It is a cruel conflict in which the government is not the only main player.

The rebels are executing Syrian soldiers, while groups with ties to al-Qaida kill everyone who is Alawite, a Syrian sect that is considered Shiite. This coalition is united by its effort to topple the regime, but each side’s vision for Syria’s future is very different.

Amid this outlook, President Obama asked Congress to support punitive, limited military strikes, even if that exposes our country to unanticipated collateral effects in a heated region. That is a dangerous proposal.

Developments both in Congress and the UN are giving time to maneuver in seeking a solution that does not lead to U.S. strikes. Otherwise, a new element will come into play in that uncertainty that Syria represents today.