Whats next for Brazil after the elections?
When Brazilians go to the polls this Sunday to elect their next president they will determine whether incumbent Labor Party candidate, President Dilma Rousseff, will…
October’s presidential election in Brazil matters a lot. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
When Brazilians go to the polls this Sunday to elect their next president they will determine whether incumbent Labor Party candidate, President Dilma Rousseff, will retain her office for a second term. Her two main challengers, however, (there are actually 11 candidates on the ballot) may force her into a runoff later this month.
In addition to Rousseff, Aecio Neves, of the Social Democrats (PSDM), a former governor of Minas Gerais and of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB), a former Minister of the Environment under former Labor Party government of President Luis Ignacio da Silva (Lula) are also running.
Silva’s candidacy is especially poignant. She was the vice-presidential candidate on the ticket with Eduardo Campos. In August Campos, died tragically in a plane crash. Marina assumed his candidacy and her support surged. This turn of events has thrown a wildcard into the electoral mix.
SEE ALSO: Marina Silva could help save the planet
The Labor Party may be facing the test of its own success over the last twelve years
The ambitious social programs started in 2003, the hallmark of President Lulas time in office, lifted many Brazilians out of poverty.
Brazils social spending reduced the poverty rate by 55 percent and the extreme poverty rate by 65 percent. Through a conditional cash transfer program, Bolsa Familiar, Brazilians received better wages and more household income. Unemployment is still at a record low of 4.9 percent. When Lula came to office it was 12.3 percent.
Aecio Neves was initially the main political challenger to President Rousseff, however he was surpassed after Marina Silvas late entry into the election. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
But generous programs also created greater expectations of Brazils new middle class. The booming economy which Dilma Rousseff inherited started to cool just as her presidency began in 2009. Brazil went from dramatic annual growth rates of 6 percent to the most recent estimate that this year the economy will grow at less than one percent.
By last summer the frustrations of many citizens became the basis for the anti-government demonstrations of 2013 that shut down major cities around the country.
The barricades and parades that brought thousands to the streets demanding more funds for health care and education were erected by those who had tasted the benefits of successful social policies that brought them there. Reduced revenues have challenged a government whose investment in stadiums for this summers World Cup were thought to take away funding from urgently needed schools, hospitals and public transportation. These conditions set the stage for a challenge to Labors twelve year run.
Over the last few weeks Marina Silvas star has been rising
The Economist featured a story about why should could win this election. Her compelling life story, from humble origins as the daughter of poor rubber tappers in the Amazon state of Acre to her evolution as a champion of the environment, to her role in Lulas government, and her eventual run for the presidency as a Green Party candidate all point to her appeal as an agent of change. Moreover, she is not corrupt, and is an evangelical Christian who appeals to Brazilians disgust with money scandals that have plagued the PT government.
Brazil, South Americas largest economy, votes in presidential and governmentwide elections on Sunday. Brazilian Presidential candidate Marina Silva. (Twitter)
In the last week Silvas lead over Dilma has shrunk. While she is still a favorite among a broad coalition of voters that include business and higher earning Brazilians, there is still a strong network of PT operatives around the country who can get out the vote.
But there are many who now think that even though the race is still too close to call Dilma will probably do well enough to pull a victory out of a run-off. Of course that will depend on whether the business community, who would have preferred a Social Democrat like Aecio Neves, have now found in Marina Silva the perfect hybrid of a social progressive with a pragmatic sense of what it will take to revive Brazils economic place in the world.
Why should this matter to the United States?
The answer is simple. Brazil, the second-largest state in the Western Hemisphere and is a strong democracy with a tradition of respect for international law. It works through international organizations like the United Nations, where its police and military have continued to support peacekeeping operations in Haiti and around the world.
Just as the United States is a leader for the countries of the Global North, so Brazil has assumed leadership in the Global South. This is important in a world where we are experiencing dynamic changes in the governance, security, and trading relationships.
Over the last year the bilateral relationship between Brazil and the United States has been strained.
The revelations that U.S. government agencies monitored Dilmas cell phone resulted in a difficult period for both governments continues. While foreign policy is not a feature of this election in Brazil, it seems certain that no matter who wins this race, either in round one or two, the winner will want to ensure that our long-term relationship with Brazil evolves in a way that benefits our respective interests. Those include our mutual respect for democratic governance, protection of the environment, and support for international law. Fortunately, all those seeking the presidency share these common values, and any change will benefit us all.
SEE ALSO: The limits of Brazilian soft power
Johanna Mendelson Forman is a Senior Advisor at the Stimson Center and a Scholar-in Residence at the American University School of International Service in Washington, D.C.
