Can ‘Latino Rocky’ win in California’s Senate fight?

FILE: Attorney General Kamala Harris speaks at a news conference at the State of California building in San Francisco, Tuesday, Dec. 4, 2012. She’s seen as the frontrunner for the Ca. Senate race. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Key Latinos have been steadily lining up with Harris, the latest being former Assembly Speaker John Perez – Villaraigosa’s cousin – who this week endorsed the attorney general for the Senate seat and was named a co-chair of her campaign.

Major California statewide elections have become costly affairs because of the size of the state and the expense of important advertising buys, professional consultants and campaign management teams – and these kinds of races pose a major hurdle for candidates without a significant donor base or high name identification, with Chavez qualifying on both counts.

According to a recent USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll, only 19 percent of the state’s registered voters could identify Chavez by name and received the backing of an even smaller 6 percent of those surveyed.

Additionally Chavez, who was elected to the Assembly in 2012, faces the same obstacles as most Republicans, as Democrats have long held all eight statewide offices and both Senate seats. The California GOP also trails the Democratic Party by 15 percentage points in registered voters.

An estimated 55 percent of Latino voters are Democrats and only 17 percent are Republicans, with the rest being independents who strongly lean Democratic.

“I think if I…run a traditional Republican race, it would be a mission impossible,” Chavez candidly admits.

So Chavez is making the campaign a choice not of traditional GOP values or even of a Latino versus an African American but of leadership, professions and patriotism.

“If things get worse overseas, who would Californians want representing them in the Senate — a lawyer from San Francisco or a Marine colonel who knows how lives can be protected and understands the importance of keeping America and her allies safe and secure?” he posed in his candidacy announcement.

So, in true Rocky style, Chavez will be presenting himself to voters as a different kind of Republican.

Rocky Chavez spending time with veterans at the American GI Luncheon. The GOP candidate is a veteran himself. (Photo: Rocky Chavez official assembly website)

Indeed, while Chavez describes himself as fiscally conservative and socially moderate, he supports gay marriage and has been critical of other Republicans for blocking immigration reform.

The odds are made even longer for Chavez in that the Senate election falls in a presidential campaign year that always draw a bigger Democratic turnout, especially if Hillary Rodham Clinton, who won the state’s primary in 2008, is a candidate seeking to become America’s first woman president.

Chavez, thus, has his underdog challenge cut out for him, starting with whether he is the GOP answer to getting Latino Democrats to go against tradition and vote for him.

The odds are long.

“History has shown pretty clearly that Latinos do not cross over to vote for Republicans in California,” says veteran Democratic consultant Garry South.

“Let’s put this in perspective,” he added. “Rocky who?”

SEE ALSO: Mayor Villaraigosa’s legacy in Los Angeles: mixed and polarizing