Why Kasich and Cruz Never Had a Chance Against Trump

The other two candidates in the Republican primary race decided to make an alliance to try to stop the tycoon in some states. But analysts said that they should have started long before

Donald Trump y John Kasich en un debate en Miami. Joe Raedle

Donald Trump y John Kasich en un debate en Miami. Joe Raedle Crédito: Getty Image

A supposed “alliance” against Donald Trump between the other two Republican candidates still in the race is taking much interest in the presidential race, but most experts doubt that it will be very effective at this point.

Last weekend, Senator Ted Cruz and Governor John Kasich, both still competing in the internal elections against the favorite Republican Donald Trump, announced an agreement that supposedly aims to stop the tycoon.

The agreement is that John Kasich will stop advertising and competing in Indiana, a state that voted this week, so Ted Cruz can go head to head against Trump there, and not split the vote with a third party in the dispute.

Meanwhile Ted Cruz will stop campaigning in Oregon and New Mexico, who vote on May 17 and June 7, to allow Kasich compete directly with Trump there.

The goal is not to beat Trump directly with delegates, which is already impossible for Cruz or Kasich.  They seek to prevent Trump from reaching the 1,237 delegates, which are needed to secure the nomination.

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The idea is that, if Trump does not reach that number, the other candidates could go to the party’s national convention in July, where delegates from around the country will converge to negotiate the votes for a new nominee other than Trump.

It is clear that both Cruz and Kasich want to be that candidate, so it is likely that their alliance will end there, although David Caputo, professor of politics at Pace University in New York speculated that, perhaps they would join in a “president-vice president” formula.

“I wonder how far the alliance will go,” said Caputo. “It could be a formula to also combine their efforts at the convention, but who knows.”

The complication is, analysts say, that there is not much they can do to stop Trump, who already has a solid lead in delegates and looks ready to win another series of primaries.

Here is a short list of the many problems Republicans who want to overthrow Trump are facing from within the party, especially at this point.

1. Kasich’s voters may not vote for Cruz, and vice versa

“To facilitate this, campaigns must be able to get their voters do what they suggest,” said Professor Mark Caleb Smith, from Cedarville University in Ohio.  “I honestly think we both see this as the last chance to stop Trump and that is a desperate move.”

Desperation is what Trump claimed against them after learning about the alliance, which was announced on Sunday in separate press releases.

On Twitter, Trump launched several attacks against the other two Republicans.

It’s logical that Trump says it, but he’s not the only one who is doing it.

2. It seems like a conspiracy against Trump

The alliance strengthens Trump’s argument that the party machine is against him and that is something that many Republican voters detest, at least this year.

“It’s absolutely stupid that they have said it that way,” said NBC News analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a professor at USC. “But frankly I think what it does is to support Trump’s argument that is a partisan conspiracy against him.  And that helps him with many voters.”

3. The numbers already look very favorable for Trump, again

The real key is Indiana, which votes on May 3, as tomorrow Tuesday Trump is likely to sweep away in several, if not all, states that vote: Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware.

“The anti-Trump forces continue running late,” says Raph Sonenshein, director of the Pat Brown Institute of Political Studies in California.  “There is not a real strategy to stop Trump, only he can stop himself.

4. The “alliance” started badly and went worse

Supposedly, Kasich will no longer compete in Indiana because Cruz would have to win there to deny Trump the vast majority of the delegates. But Kasich said Monday, a few hours after he announced the agreement with Cruz that Indiana voters “still should vote for me.”

“I’m not campaigning in Indiana but I’m just focusing on other states. No big deal,” Kasich said.

Democrats observe from outside with some joy.

“Wow, the alliance lasted little. Cruz and Kasich are desperately seeking relevance, although mathematically they have no chance of winning the nomination without putting the party into further chaos,” said Mark Paustenbach, press secretary of the Democratic National Committee.

However, there is still a glimmer of hope, said Patrick Murray, director of the Institute of Surveys Monmouth University.

“What matters is the numbers.  Everything could be based on a delegate or a few,” Murray said. “If Trump does not come close to the 1237 delegates needed at the end of the primary process, the convention can be opened like the competition.”

That’s what Cruz and Kasich expect. And probably they are not alone

En esta nota

Donald Trump Elecciones 2016 John Kasich Ted Cruz Voto Latino

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