Unexpected outcome in Arizona race has many scratching their heads

More than a week after the elections, many people in Arizona are still scratching their heads trying to figure out what happened in the race for state superintendent of public instruction.

Democratic candidate David Garcia seemed like the clear frontrunner. But he lost the race by a slim margin to Republican challenger Diane Douglas, who critics say is not qualified for the position.

“The assumption was that David was clearly going to win,” former Arizona lawmaker Alfredo Gutierrez said in an interview with VOXXI. “Even in the face of a Republican tsunami, he was the unique Democrat who was going to win.”

David Garcia was the favorite to win

Garcia was the favorite to win for many reasons. He traveled to nearly every corner of the state meeting with parents, teachers and students. He had a clear plan to improve public education in Arizona, one that included closing the Latino achievement gap.

He ran a strong campaign and outspent his opponent 7 to 1. He also picked up endorsements from prominent Republicans and the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry, which hadn’t endorsed a Democrat since 2006.

In addition, some regarded him as the most qualified person to ever run for the position of superintendent of public instruction. He is currently an associate professor of education leadership at Arizona State University. He also has experience as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Education and previously worked as an associate superintendent in the Arizona Department of Education.

SEE ALSO: Latino in the running for Arizona’s top post in public education

Douglas, on the other hand, maintained a low profile and hardly spoke to the press after winning the Republican primary in August. The former school board member showed up to debate Garcia only once, but that was because she was required to appear in order to receive public funds for her campaign.

She also ran on a single issue: to repeal the Common Core education standards in Arizona. And critics argued she wasn’t ready to take over the state’s top post in public education given she doesn’t have a lot of experience in education administration.

Despite all that, Douglas pulled off a victory over Garcia. The Associated Press declared her the winner on Sunday after it determined Garcia would not be able to overcome Douglas’ one-percentage point lead.

Garcia, who had held back from conceding the race to allow for a final ballot count, said in a statement on Monday that his campaign did not see “a path to victory.” He also congratulated Douglas on her win.

“My team and I put everything into this race, and I am proud of the campaign we ran,” Garcia added. “We put forth a vision and were willing to speak openly and honestly about the challenges our state faces and the direction we needed to take to improve our schools.”

In a statement also released on Monday, Douglas said voters elected her because they want to do away with Common Core. She added, “My campaign was the clearest way for the citizens of Arizona to reject Common Core and that is what they did with this election.”

Why did Diane Douglas win?

Political analyst Mike O’Neil said he knew it would be difficult for a Democrat to win a statewide office race in a state like Arizona, where Republicans hold a voter registration advantage of 6 percentage points. Still, O’Neil said he and others believed, “If there is one Democrat that will win this time, of course, it will be David Garcia.”

Now, O’Neil is pointing to a number of reasons why he thinks Douglas defeated Garcia.

“The result is absolutely astounding to me,” he said. “By way of explanation, I have one very simple explanation: She had an ‘R’ next to her name. End of story.”

O’Neil isn’t the only one who thinks that way. Other political observers say Douglas’ victory was part of the Republican sweep of statewide races across Arizona, as no Democrat won a statewide office race this year. They argue Douglas benefited from that sweep.

Another reason O’Neil said he thinks Douglas won was because Republican voters usually turn out to vote at higher rates than Democrats during off-year elections. He added that it also had to do with how the race for state superintendent of public instruction was “not on the radar screen” for a lot of voters who more likely were following other races, like the governor’s race.

SEE ALSO: Top statewide races to watch that include Latino candidates

In addition, O’Neil said Latinos were not as “energized” about voting this year like they were in 2010, when Arizona approved its controversial immigration law known as SB 1070. He said that also made a difference in the election outcome.

“If Latinos had voted in the same proportions that they did two years ago, Garcia would’ve been over the top because it was that close,” he said.

Like O’Neil, Gutierrez said he also believes many Latinos weren’t motivated to vote this year. He added, “We have not yet been able to figure what it’s going to take to motivate Latinos to vote anywhere near their potential or anywhere near the voter turnout of the larger community.”

Recall efforts already underway

As Douglas prepares to begin her term as superintendent of public instruction in January, it’s still unclear what her plans for education in Arizona are other than her desire to repeal Common Core. She hasn’t spoken to the press about her plans and her campaign website doesn’t give details about her plan.

That concerns many educators, including Anthony Espinoza, a public school teacher in Phoenix.

“From what I’ve seen and heard from a lot of teachers and administrators and people on school boards, they’re upset and worried about Diane Douglas being in charge of our students,” he said in an interview with VOXXI.

Espinoza recently launched the “Recall Diane Douglas” campaign on Facebook and Twitter, which has been picking up a lot of attention. He said the goal of the campaign is to ultimately recall Douglas because “she is not fit to lead” as the state superintendent of public instruction.

But according to state law, Douglas cannot be recalled until she has been in office for at least six months. Espinoza said he is aware of that, so for now he plans to continue gathering support and getting organized.

SEE ALSO: Gov. Brian Sandoval: A Republican who knows how to win over Latinos